Who initiates divorce the most? Men or women?

Pop quiz. Who initiates divorces and break-ups? Men or women?

The answer is women. Women are more likely than men to initiate a break-up.

First, men are less likely than women to initiate break-ups (Hegelson, 1994; Hill, Rubin, and Peplau, 1976), and noninitiators of a break-up are more likely than initiators to experience distress (Sprecher, Felmlee, Metts, Fehr, & Vanni, 1998).
Handbook of Gender Research in Psychology, Volume 2 (pg. 297)

But what’s the effect size, I can hear you shout. I don’t know because both papers are paywalled.

Which sex suffers more from a breakup? Men or women?

Exploratory data analyses revealed that women more than men reported experiencing negative emotions after a breakup, particularly feeling sad, confused, and scared.
Breaking up Romantic Relationships: Costs Experienced and Coping Strategies Deployed

But not so fast! From the same paper:

Previous research using various inventories of emotions suggests that women experience more positive valence emotions and less initial distress following a breakup than men (Choo, Levine, and Hatfield, 1996; Hill et al., 1976; Sprecher, 1994; Sprecher et al., 1998).

If I want to abuse the evo-psych habit of fabricating just-so stories, I can reason:

  • Women suffer more because it’s harder for them to find a committed man than vice versa.
  • Men suffer more during a break-up to signal emotional involvement plus commitment which, ideally, halts the process. (“All this pain proves I love you! Don’t leave me.”) Thus their distress is greater and it’s all part of evolution’s depraved plan.

Symmetrical to that second point, I’d expect women to escalate sexual commitment if their long-term partner starts sending I’m-thinking-about-leaving-you vibrations.

Buss anticipates my second point and writes:

Because women value emotional commitment so highly in their mates, men may deploy a counter-strategy to exploit this desire: he may attempt to maintain sexual access to a woman by signaling an increase in his emotional investment to her. In the modern world, men can accomplish this by suggesting they become exclusive to one another, cohabit, obtain a mutual pet, get married, or have children.

How romantic! Thanks evolution.

Right, but as I was going to say — before being distracted by Buss and Perilloux’s paper — this first result makes a lot of sense if you already know that women initiate 70% of all divorces. So it’s nice to see that this trend isn’t some strange artifact of marriage and holds for romantic relationships generally.

Last fun thing. If you dump a woman, yeah, she’s gon’ be mad:

Davis et al. (2003) found that women who did not initiate the break-up reported more anger, hostility, and violence directed at their partner than did men.
Handbook of Gender Research in Psychology, Volume 2 (pg. 297)

Red Pill Rhetoric: Swallowing the Red Pill Isn’t

You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes
—Morpheus, The Matrix

Ted is 23, fictional, and one night stays up late browsing the web. He starts on Wikipedia, finds himself reading the page on the 9/11 terrorist attacks, follows the links to conspiracy theorists, and eventually lands on YouTube. He watches videos all night. His brain stews in the information.

The sun rises. He’s convinced. 9/11 was an inside job.

But Ted has a problem. If 9/11 was an inside job and anyone with an internet connection can find out the truth, why are so few people believers? It’s unlikely that Ted just happens to be one of the select few that has figured out the truth. He needs some sort of justification. In general, weird beliefs are wrong beliefs, so why isn’t this weird belief wrong?

Ted stumbles around for a while, grasping at nothing, until… Eureka! No one else realizes the truth, he thinks, because the truth is so horrible. Our own government was in on it. Ted figures that he can see the truth because it’s his nature not to shy away from the painful things in life. He’s a stoic, don’t-you-know.

Except 9/11 wasn’t an inside job. Ted’s belief system has been poisoned.

Swallowing the Red Pill

I’ve heard this phenomenon described by adherents of outside-normal beliefs as “swallowing the red pill” — like when Neo accepts Morpheus’s offer and realizes he’s been living inside of the matrix.

It’s rhetoric. Sure, there are terrible truths about human existence, but:

Regarding my second point, consider the worst of the pick-up movement. They took something with a kernel of truth — that women find
dominance behavior attractive — and expanded it into a philosophy.

The trouble with that, of course, is that it misses out on all the complexity of relationships — you know, the whole reason why
you might want a significant other in the first place. Social interaction isn’t zero sum. Both parties can benefit more by cooperating than they would otherwise.

All of this is to say: If you stumble on some group of people that claim to have recognized a terrible truth that no one else can bear, beware nonsense.

Fox News Versus MSNBC: Who’s More Opinionated?

Listening to the internet, you’d think that Fox News is some sort of liberal boogeyman — the lowest of the low that is modern journalism. From the top comment on the Reddit thread, “Republicans of reddit, what’s your opinion on Fox News?”

I’m a registered Republican, from the midwest, and a military officer. Obviously it’s the only thing I watch, right? Fox News is an embarrassment.

But what about, you know, facts and stuff?

From The Pew Research Center’s Project For Excellence in Journalism:

msnbc-opinion-reporting

What affects your personal identity? You’re a sponge.

nudibranch

That thing is the most badass of all sea slugs, the nudibranch. The nudibranch is more a family of sea slugs than one species, and the name comes from the Latin nudus, meaning naked, as it has no shell.

This slug is not remarkable for its nudity, although “naked sea slugs” would make a good name for a band. No, the remarkable thing about the nudibranch is that it eats jellyfish, digests their stinging cells, and then incorporates those same cells into its body as a defense mechanism.

It uses the same mechanism to absorb the chloroplasts from plant cells, enabling the slug to turn sunlight into food. It’s a photosynthesizing slug.

The nudibranch literally digests and absorbs the abilities of the creatures it eats. You, gentle reader, are like that nudibranch.

Identity considered harmful

Identity is weird. Take politics. I once met this dude and we had a lot in common. He was a software guy, working for the Obama campaign. We hit it off, talking about BitTorrent and evolution, and then he brought up politics.

That was a mistake. We disagreed about the desirability of government regulation, and that was the end of it. He avoided me for the rest of the day.

Politics is a dangerous subject. Revealing your political leanings on Facebook is a great way to alienate half (or more) of your friends. I’ve heard this officialized as dating advice — “Don’t R.A.P.E your date,” where each letter is a topic to avoid:

  • Religion
  • Abortion
  • Politics
  • Exes

Why are people so weird about religion and politics? Because they identify as one tribe or another. If you disagree with the politics of their favorite tribe, well, that feels like a personal attack.

But you’re a sponge

sponge

Not all identity sucks, though. One of the best: identity as a sponge.

The sponge is a duplicator, an absorber, like the nudibranch. Whenever a sponge notices someone doing something cool, he incorporates it into his own identity.

Consider style in writing. Where does it come from? Does it spring forth from the inner recesses or our minds, the product of a true self? Nah, fuck that. Style is a result of absorbing the awesome things you read.

Impressive works don’t fall out, wholly formed from some lucky stiff’s mind. Everyone has some sorta process and, if you figure it out, you can absorb and reproduce anything anyone else can do.

What one fool can do, another can.

Further Reading

Hindsight Bias In The Media: Talking While Driving

What’s more dangerous: texting and driving or talking on a headset and driving?

If I told you that texting and driving was more dangerous, I predict you’d say, “Well, duh. That’s obvious. Everyone knows that.” But what if I told you the opposite? Would you say the same thing?

Well, you don’t need to, because some joker at Scientific American has done it for you:

After describing a recent study that found that texting by hand and hands-free by voice were equally bad for driving in “Crash Text Dummies” [TechnoFiles], David Pogue writes that “the results surprised me.” It would, in fact, be very surprising if they had showed any difference: the reason that driving performance is impaired when people are making phone calls and texting, hands-free or not, is that such tasks require attention. That’s why a sensible driver would, say, stop talking when navigating a curvy ramp.

This kinda thing gets my blood pressure up. It’s a prime example of hindsight bias in the media. Researchers report something unexpected and then people say, “Well, duh. Everyone knows that!” Except they would produce the exact same response if the researchers had found the opposite.

I can invent explanations for anything, but I don’t mistake my brain’s fairy tales for reality.

Further Reading

Software For Writers: Tools To Improve Your Writing

emacs

There are two types of writer — the snobs and the engineers. The engineers believe that crafting the right sentence is a rule-based affair. “Be brief. Avoid adverbs.”

The snob turns up his nose at rules. Rules, he says, are for the amateur. The English language is not about rules — great writers break them all, and those who preach about rules don’t even follow their own.

I don’t like the snobs. I mean, they have a point. In language, there are no absolutes — well, probably. But rules are useful. I suspect the real reason that snobs are so against rules is because it’s an opportunity for them to signal their sophistication. “Rules? Ick. Rules are training wheels and not for the likes of one as fine a writer as I.”

Adherents of snob theory ought to try programming. If I’m making ten mistakes an hour, it’s a good day. I’ll use any crutch available and I’ll be proud that I do. The world is a complex place. We need tools to help us tame that complexity.

Engineering in the art of writing

Spell Check

I’ve dominated more than one spelling bee in my day and used to believe that I didn’t need to spell check my work. What a poor, deluded fool I was! (I still am, but less and less and less.)

Now I spell check everything I write. I’d estimate that I have an error rate of about one or two for every 250 words. It takes 30 seconds to run a post through spell check after I write it, which is enough to eradicate the errors.

Weasel Words

Matt Might, an assistant professor at the University of Utah, wrote a set of shell scripts to help PhD students improve their writing. He focused on eliminating weasel words and passive voice. His scripts have since been ported to emacs in the form of writegood-mode.

Some examples of weasel words:
* many
* extremely
* interestingly
* surprisingly

A 2009 study analyzed the usage of the “weasel words” tag on Wikipedia and found that they fell in three broad categories:

  • Handwavy use of proportion that doesn’t answer the question “How many?” (“Some people”, “Experts”, “Many”)
  • Use of the passive voice.
  • Adverbs, e.g. often, probably.

Such sentences can be rewritten by substituting more specific language. Wikipedia offers this example: “The Yankees are one of the greatest baseball teams in history,” can be rewritten as “The New York Yankees have won 26 World Series championships—almost three times as many as any other team.”

The principle behind this, and the “Show, don’t tell” rule so often trotted out in this sort of discussions, is to eliminate reliance on the author. If I tell you that a problem is important, you can either trust of ignore me, while if I reveal my evidence, you get to “use your own free will.”

Clichés

Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.
—George Orwell, “Politics and the English Language”

Consider two phrases:

  • No one in his right mind would reject reductionism.
  • No one in her left brain would reject reductionism.

The second comes to me by way of Doug Hofstadter and is, I think, the more compelling of the two. A phrase, when overused, loses all of its punch and becomes boring.

Examples:

  • Hope against hope.
  • Ignorance is bliss.
  • Matter of life and death.

My fork of writegood-mode supports highlighting cliched phrases. For those who are not members of the emacs cabal, there is also an online cliche finder.

Grammar Checking

There are more possible errors than spelling mistakes, which is where automated grammar checkers come in. They’re not as good as human feedback, but they’re convenient and catch problems that you otherwise might not.

I ran a recent post through the open source LanguageTool and it managed to spot that I’d used “free reign,” when it should be “free rein” — a mistake subtle enough that I would never have noticed it. Hell, I thought rein and reign were spelled in the same way.

For emacs users, you can install LanguageTool and langtool-mode to check your writing from the convenience of your text editor. Non-emacs users have the option of installing and checking from the command line, or using the online version.

Readability

The average American reads at between a 7th and 8th grade level. If your prose is too complex, you’re alienating a fair chunk of potential readers.

According to Wikipedia’s article on readability, TV Guide and Readers Digest, the two publications with the largest circulation, are written at a 9th-grade level, while the most popular novels are written at a 7th-grade level. A 1947 experiment by Wallaces’ Farmer — a magazine — found that reducing an article from a 9th to 6th grade reading level increased readership by 43%.

The GNU project ships style — a command line tool that checks the reading level of a piece of writing. Running this entire blog through it returns a reading level of 8, according to the Flesh-Kincaid formula. The formula correlates 0.91 with reading comprehension.

For emacs users, there’s artbollocks-mode, which has a built-in readability test and duplicates some of the features of writegood-mode. For non emacs users, there’s GNU style and this online tool.

A Writing Checklist

In 2001, Dr. Peter Provonost — who specializes in critical care at Johns Hopkins — put together a checklist of the obvious things that doctors need to do before treating a patient: hand-washing, wear gloves, clean the patient’s skin before inserting a needle, that sort of thing. These are not super tricky, only-clever-people-know steps. Everyone is supposed to do them, everyone knows, but sometimes people forget.

After implementing the checklist, infections in the ICU dropped from 11 percent to zero — saving 8 lives and 2 million dollars. Consequently, the hospital implemented still more checklists — reducing the average ICU stay by half and saving 21 lives.

A 2009 study duplicated this success in 8 other hospitals.

Still not convinced? See my post on the effectiveness of checklists.

I have my own checklist for writing:

  • Make sure all my links are to high-quality domains and treatments.
  • Are links to Further Reading resources.
  • Add links to other relevant posts I’ve written.
  • Add images.
  • Check for broken links.
  • Add more relevant examples if possible, especially personal ones.
  • Humanize the writing.
  • Remove unoriginal metaphors or examples.
  • Remove hedged phrases, weasel words.
  • Switch passive phrases to active.
  • Remove any foreign phrases, scientific words, or jargon that aren’t necessary.
  • Read out loud and check for flow.
  • Remove any criticism of other people.
  • Remove cliches.
  • Search for “ly” words and remove them.
  • Search for exclamation marks and semi-colons and remove them.
  • Strip needless words.
  • Check reading level.
  • Give it a good, googleable, and sensational title.
  • Add a summary.
  • Write google description.
  • Bold the important parts.
  • Have other people read it and get their reaction.
  • Spell check.
  • Grammar check.
  • Make sure it renders properly.

Further Reading

Why Do We Think The Way We Do?

I sometimes experience a sort of mental disconnect — a sense of knowing what I’m going to think before I bother to think it. Sort of like an experience of “pure thought” that is followed by a mental translation into words. It happens maybe a couple times a day and I wonder, “Why do I bother thinking at all? At least in words. Why not stick to the stuff of pure thought?”

After realizing this sort of thing, I started to pay more attention to the specifics of my thought processes. Just what, I wondered, is going on in my head? And I realized: Much of my thought is not in words, but images and motion. I’m no longer even certain that most of my thought happens in English — maybe it’s all meaningness that is converted into words when I throw a mental spotlight onto it.

Indeed, research by Linda Silverman reports that some portion of the population thinks exclusively in words (estimated at 25%), another portion strongly prefers imagery (30%) and, like me, most prefer a mix of the two (45%). There may even be sex differences. In one study, female participants reported more vivid mental imagery than their male counterparts.

Why do we bother?

What’s the point of thought? What’s my mind doing all day long?

There are (at least) two levels we can pursue this on. We can consider the differences between humans and, say, chimpanzees, and speculate as to the general nature of intelligence. Why do some of us have more of it than others and what is it good for? Why did intellect evolve?

The other tact we might pursue, the other set of questions, is: Why is there consciousness? Why do we have a “mental space” and self-awareness? Why couldn’t it all happen, you know, elsewhere — like a reflex? What’s the point of these words and images in my head?

The Evolution of Intelligence

There is no clear scientific consensus on why intelligence evolved. Wikipedia is maybe the most useful resource — better than the review article in The Cambridge Handbook of Intelligence — but it only goes so far as to list the different theories, not evaluate the plausibility of each.

However, I am a man on a blog, which means I have free rein to speculate. I’m partial to the notion that intelligence evolved, fundamentally, to be weaponized in disputes against other humans.

Consider the social structure of the violent, yet much beloved, chimpanzee. He lives in a group of some 15 to 125 individuals. He has a definite place in the community’s pecking order — submitting to those more powerful and dominating those less.

Bizarrely, the “top dog” chimpanzee, the leader of the group, is not always the strongest male. Rather, he’s the one who is the most politically suave — forming alliances in a crude chimp analog to House of Cards. Alliances which allow two lesser chimps to dominate a greater chimp.

Given that the most powerful chimpanzee has, more or less, free access to the females of community, he will pass his genes down to more children than other, less dominant males. This means that political savvy and the chimp equivalent of social skills are of no small reproductive benefit. If we assume that there is a significant correlation between intelligence and the sort of strategic thinking required to become and stay top chimp, then we can begin to see a path through which intelligence might have been selected for.

In such a scenario, then, intelligence starts to look like a sort of arms race. If I can outsmart my fellow chimps, I’m more likely to reproduce and, thus, my genes survive another generation. This would mean that intelligence’s purpose, at least in the sense of what it evolved for, is the manipulation of social hierarchies.

However, if this is the case, it doesn’t seem to align all that well with what we see in modern society. President Obama, the top of our monkey social pyramid, is not the most intelligent man I can name — Terry Tao, Scott Aaronson, John Baez, and those are just people in my RSS feed.

But maybe that’s too harsh a demand on the theory. I’m not proposing that intelligence perfectly correlates with reproductive success, just that the more intelligent were more likely to reproduce than those of average intelligence, thanks to their throne at the top of monkey pile.

In that case, presidents fare better. George Bush, who everyone likes to hate on as so dumb, still scored above the 85th percentile on both the math and verbal portions of the SAT, putting him more than a standard deviation above the mean. If we’re willing to concede that most presidents are at least as intelligent as my boy George, this means that the average leader of the free world has at least a standard deviation on average folk.

A separate trouble with the theory is that, currently, intelligence and reproductive success are negatively correlated — the smarter you are, the fewer children you’re likely to have. But this is almost certainly a symptom of modernity — after all, if it held throughout the ages, how could intelligence possibly have evolved in the first place? We exist, so this seems more like a glimpse of the face of that Cthulhu which is modernity.

The utility of intelligence

Here is a famous thought experiment that comes to me by way of Roger Crisp:

You are a soul in heaven waiting to be allocated a life on Earth. It is late Friday afternoon, and you watch anxiously as the supply of available lives dwindles. When your turn comes, the angel in charge offers you a choice between two lives, that of the composer Joseph Haydn and that of an oyster. Besides composing some wonderful music and influencing the evolution of the symphony, Haydn will meet with success and honour in his own lifetime, be cheerful and popular, travel and gain much enjoyment from field sports. The oyster’s life is far less exciting. Though this is rather a sophisticated oyster, its life will consist only of mild sensual pleasure, rather like that experienced by humans when floating very drunk in a warm bath. When you request the life of Haydn, the angel sighs, ‘I’ll never get rid of this oyster life. It’s been hanging around for ages. Look, I’ll offer you a special deal. Haydn will die at the age of seventy-seven. But I’ll make the oyster life as long as you like…

Presumably, you would rather be Haydn than the oyster (and, if not, you’re probably a hedonist and I’d like to party with you.) It’s better to be smart than to be dumb. If Pfizer tomorrow comes up with +50 IQ pills, I’ll be first in line.

But why? What’s good about intelligence?

It helps us achieve our goals, whatever those goals may be. Well, except happiness and maybe sex, but I think the sex result is probably a hormone thing. I expect a genius would have little trouble learning pick-up. Case in point: the weird section in Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman where Feynman talks about negging women in bars so that they’ll sleep with him.

Other goals are amenable to the application of intelligence — finding food, housing, becoming president, that sort of thing. Smarter people have an easier time finding information — what to eat, how to lose weight, and so on, and they use this to shape their plans. Smarter people are even more likely to successfully quit smoking.

Yay, intelligence.

But Why Thoughts?

What’s the point of conscious reasoning? The sort of thought that is available to introspection — that which I’m aware of taking place, at least sometimes. Why?

Last night, I was working on one of the puzzles in To Mock a Mockingbird and paying attention to what was going on in my head. A possible solution would spring from the unconscious or as a result of the reasoning process. Then, I would work through the implications of the idea — does it solve the puzzle? What happens in this case? What about if I try this?

Thought seems to be related to this sort of mental simulation, this considering of consequences and verification of intuition. Indeed, we might think of intuitive, unconscious thought as a sort of tennis partner with slower, conscious reasoning — a back and forth. The intuition provides material to the conscious mind and the conscious mind processes that information, which sculpts and corrects the intuition.

Try sitting for a moment and thinking about nothing at all. It’s impossible to maintain for long — you’ll find thoughts popping unbidden into your mind. The control that the self, the “I”, has seems to be related to working with what pops into mental space. I can let go of a thought and wait for something else to occur to me, or I can grab onto that thought and work through the implications of it — sorta leaping from one thought to the next, each a related procession of mental experience, a bit like jumping from one train car to the next in an action film.

That, I think, is the point of human thought, of reason. If I do this, what will happen? If this is true, what are the implications?

Further Reading

Links for March

The Boy Girl Paradox Explained

Probability theory is notorious for violating human intuition. Consider the Boy Girl Paradox:

Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?

Answer: Of course, the brain thinks, it must be one half. Except it isn’t. It’s one in three.

(Edit: note that the problem can be interpreted in two ways, making it ambiguous as formulated. See the comments for details.)

Trust, but Verify

If the whole Monty Hall debacle and my sister’s reaction (“That’s bullshit!”) are any indication, though, you will not believe me. We must force the intuition to see the error of its ways.

Let’s consider a set of 100 pairs of children and assume that it’s a perfect, representative sample. This means that \(\frac{1}{4}\) is \((Boy, Boy)\), \(\frac{1}{4}\) is \((Boy, Girl)\), \(\frac{1}{4}\) is \((Girl, Boy)\), and \(\frac{1}{4}\) is \((Girl, Girl)\).

Visually:

"Picture of pairs in the Boy Girl Paradox."

We don’t need to consider double girl sets, since the problem specifies at least one child is a boy.

"Picture of pairs in the Boy Girl Paradox, without girl pairs."

From the image, we can see that there are twice as many boy-girl pairs than double boy pairs — giving us \(\frac{1}{3}\).

"Picture of solution to the Boy Girl Paradox."

Examining this problem suggests a more general heuristic:

Heuristic: When considering a probability problem, consider all possible permutations. Draw a picture.

The Other Problem

Usually, the problem is presented as a pair of problems, the second of which is:

Mr. Jones has two children. The older child is a girl. What is the probability > that both children are girls?

Answer: This time it is one half. Can you see why?

Consider the original image again:

"Picture of pairs in the Boy Girl Paradox."

Then eliminate all pairs where the eldest child is not a girl:

"Picture of eldest girl child pairs in the Boy Girl Paradox."

\(\frac{1}{2}\) of the pairs are \((Girl,Girl)\).

Debugging the Intuition

When MBA students were presented with the first problem, 83% of them gave an answer of \(\frac{1}{2}\). Why is this so tempting? Why does intuition lead us astray?

I’ve heard that teachers consider wrong answers on tests to be valuable feedback. They can see the sort of errors that children make and iron out the conceptual bugs, so to speak. Consider the process of coming up with wrong answer to the first problem. When I worked through it the first time, I thought, “Well, I know that one child is a boy, so there’s a 50% chance that the other child is a boy.” The trouble with this is that it implicitly fixes the first child as a boy — like the second problem does — but this is not a valid move.

Fox and Levav argue that people have a faulty heuristic in their head, that works like this:

Faulty Heuristic: People split up the sample space in the simplest way necessary to accommodate the problem’s parameters. In the boy or girl paradox, the simplest way of splitting up the problem space — whether or not there are two boys — is by halving it.

Finding the correct answer to the problem feels different. It’s more of a, “Wait, what are all the possibilities?” followed by listing them out, \((Boy, Boy)\), \((Boy, Girl)\), \((Girl, Boy)\), \((Girl, Girl)\). Once that’s done, the final step is taking care not to eliminate \((Girl, Boy)\) by falsely assuming that only those in which \(Boy\) comes first are valid, at which point the solution is a matter of counting. This is much easier to avoid when everything is out on paper than it is when considering it mentally.

The trouble with the intuition may just be that it is too quick to compress the space of possibilities — “It can either be \(Boy\) or \(Girl\)!” thinks the fast, system one processor. By slowing it down, listing out all the possibilities, and only throwing out those that don’t apply — \((Girl, Girl)\) — we avoid that failure mode and arrive at the right answer.

Further Reading

People All Think The Same

kasparov-chess-black

On May 7th of 1997, Garry Kasparov — the second strongest chess player of all time — was hunched over a chess board. Both of his elbows rested on the table in front of him, with one hand clutching his forehead. His face sported a look of the purest determination.

His opponent felt nothing. It was Deep Blue, a machine built by IBM and, at the time, the most powerful computer chess player in existence.

The match ended in a draw after 56 moves and lasted just over 5 hours, but most notable was Kasparov’s opening strategy. He intended to force Deep Blue out of “The Book” as quickly as possible, in the hope that human ingenuity would have an advantage over the rigid processing of the machine.

Chess and the Book

The earliest recorded chess match dates back to the 10th century, played between a historian and a student. Since then, it’s become a tradition for moves to be recorded — especially if a game has some significance, like a showdown between two strong players. As a consequence, today, students of the game benefit from one of the richest data sets of any game or sport, with sites like ChessBase boasting more than 6 million recorded matches.

These recorded matches are sometimes referred to as “The Book,” as in, “He’s still playing from The Book,” which means that they’re playing a move that has been played before in the history of recorded chess.

It may not be immediately obvious that there exist chess moves that haven’t been played before. Claude Shannon famously estimated the number of possible chess positions at \(10^{43}\). That’s a whole lot more than the number of atoms in an apple — more possible moves than humans can ever hope to play.

If you wanted, you could go right now and download a chess program, load a few million recorded matches into it, and check whether or not a move has ever been played before by another human being. If you were playing against a friend, you could pull up a computer and compare your own moves to those of other players throughout recorded chess history — a sort of thread linking yourself with someone two hundred years ago.

Human thought is a lot like chess.

Been There, Thought That

This is a somewhat embarrassing and juvenile admission, but there was an AskReddit 20 days ago, “What is something you want to touch more than anything in the world?” I tried to come up with something creative, couldn’t think of anything good, and thought, “Welllll, guess I’ll go with Scarlett Johansson’s boobs.”

I opened the thread and that was the second most popular response.

Earlier today, Scott posed a question to his readers, “What’s a lifehack that everyone uses?” I came up with a few that I thought were clever — calendars, clocks, hand-washing, prayer and meditation. Except when I scrolled through the comments, people had thought of each of those ideas, along with maybe fifty others.

Another example: during a lull in conversational topics with friends, I sometimes drag problems that I’ve been thinking about into the discussion arena — something like, “What are the most important things for a man to know?” These are problems where I’ve spent maybe four or so hours working on them, but haven’t discovered anything satisfying.

These conversations are eerie. I sit and watch people run through thought processes that I’ve already had, offering suggestions that I’ve already considered, thinking thoughts I’ve already thought.

A “Book” of Thoughts

All of these are cases where someone has either thought something before me, or I’ve thought of something before them. These thoughts have been thought before. This is like “The Book” in chess. Thoughts are moves that have been played before.

Sure, we don’t have a central repository of thoughts in the same way that there is a database of chess matches, but we do have all the words published and indexed by Google on the internet, along with more than 35 million books in the Library of Congress.

If I want to have a novel thought, to produce some actual insight, I’m tasked with trying to think something that a human being has never thought before. This is not too difficult. I can invent a sentence like, “Imagine a giraffe that’s made out of extension cords, except where the plugins are eels with toothy, human-like grins.” This is a novel thought, but that’s about the extent of positive things that one can say about it. It’s useless.

Thinking something novel and useful is harder.

An Algorithm for Thought

The insinuation, then, is that human thought (or reason) is a structured process. It occurs broadly in the same way across individuals.

Which is not to say that my thoughts and your thoughts are identical. Thanks to a variety of genetic and environmental causes, we run on sorta different hardware, and we each have absorbed a different knowledge base to reason from.

Still, human thought is surprisingly homogeneous. Often I will make an observation to a friend or family member and they will say, “That’s what I was thinking.” This is a clue that we’re all doing the same sort of thing in our heads. Our thoughts are like water, each drop tending to end up coursing through the same canyons.

Further Reading